Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.