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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.