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The direst projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by experts, encompassing a searing 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in ocean levels. A separate possibility envisions a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset food production and power requirements.

Plausible Events, Not Predictions

These effects, certain ones are connected to climate tipping points, are seen as unlikely but plausible. The researchers explained that these models filled a gap in planning that had rendered the UK unprepared for extreme outcomes.

"The severe weather events we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are possible," commented the professor who oversaw the analysis. "The nation has been planning without the methods to assess worst-case scenarios. We've now provided planners what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they wish to avoid, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Possibilities

Another collection of dire projections details the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C above historical levels, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The chance of the catastrophic events occurring cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be taken to tackle global heating and how the climate system will behave. This approach was likened to national security risk assessments or scenario planning for economic stability.

Key Outcome Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if international cooperation collapses or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin perishing emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is slowing down and losing stability due to global heating. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," explained the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, inundating coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is rapidly cleaned up. This counterintuitive effect occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be applied to guide the building of major projects, such as housing developments, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Awareness of these future hazards could also accelerate the transition to cut fossil fuel emissions.

The research formulated the worst-case scenarios using a combination of past data and records, computer simulations and scientific theory. The possibilities exclude international cascading effects like the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The project was initiated as part of a official climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have stated that insufficient focus was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the risks for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "very weak" by certain experts.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the core of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is crucial that the UK is prepared for the consequences."